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Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 1, 2026
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Abstract South American summer monsoon (SASM) strength tracks insolation on orbital timescales, linking global climate and continental hydrology. However, whether local water availability also responds to global climate forcings is unclear. Here, we present water balance records from Lake Junín, an Andean lake within the SASM domain. Local water balance and SASM strength is inferred from triple oxygen isotopes of lake carbonates during two interglacial periods (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 15, 621–563 ka; the Holocene, 11.7–0 ka). We find SASM strength and water balance both follow the precession‐pacing of local summer insolation, with the driest conditions occurring at Lake Junín under weakened SASM conditions (and vice versa). Further, the largest variations occurred during MIS 15, when insolation was more variable than the Holocene. These results suggest that global climate influences South American hydrology on both the local and continental scales, with implications for tropical water resources, the atmospheric greenhouse effect, and ecosystem dynamics.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available August 28, 2026
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Uncertainty about the influence of anthropogenic radiative forcing on the position and strength of convective rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) inhibits our ability to project future tropical hydroclimate change in a warmer world. Paleoclimatic and modeling data inform on the timescales and mechanisms of ITCZ variability; yet a comprehensive, long-term perspective remains elusive. Here, we quantify the evolution of neotropical hydroclimate over the preindustrial past millennium (850 to 1850 CE) using a synthesis of 48 paleo-records, accounting for uncertainties in paleo-archive age models. We show that an interhemispheric pattern of precipitation antiphasing occurred on multicentury timescales in response to changes in natural radiative forcing. The conventionally defined “Little Ice Age” (1450 to 1850 CE) was marked by a clear shift toward wetter conditions in the southern neotropics and a less distinct and spatiotemporally complex transition toward drier conditions in the northern neotropics. This pattern of hydroclimatic change is consistent with results from climate model simulations indicating that a relative cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift in the thermal equator across the Atlantic basin and a southerly displacement of the ITCZ in the tropical Americas, with volcanic forcing as the principal driver. These findings are at odds with proxy-based reconstructions of ITCZ behavior in the western Pacific basin, where changes in ITCZ width and intensity, rather than mean position, appear to have driven hydroclimate transitions over the last millennium. This reinforces the idea that ITCZ responses to external forcing are region specific, complicating projections of the tropical precipitation response to global warming.more » « less
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ABSTRACT Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dating of pollen concentrates is often used in lake sediment records where large, terrestrial plant remains are unavailable. Ages produced from chemically concentrated pollen as well as manually picked Pinaceae grains in Yellowstone Lake (Wyoming) sediments were consistently 1700–4300 cal years older than ages established by terrestrial plant remains, tephrochronology, and the age of the sediment-water interface. Previous studies have successfully utilized the same laboratory space and methods, suggesting the source of old-carbon contamination is specific to these samples. Manually picking pollen grains precludes admixture of non-pollen materials. Furthermore, no clear source of old pollen grains occurs on the deglaciated landscape, making reworking of old pollen grains unlikely. High volumes of CO 2 are degassed in the Yellowstone Caldera, potentially introducing old carbon to pollen. While uptake of old CO 2 through photosynthesis is minor (F 14 C approximately 0.99), old-carbon contamination may still take place in the water column or in surficial lake sediments. It remains unclear, however, what mechanism allows for the erroneous ages of highly refractory pollen grains while terrestrial plant remains were unaffected. In the absence of a satisfactory explanation for erroneously old radiocarbon ages from pollen concentrates, we propose steps for further study.more » « less
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